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财经期刊FM-Radio|2021年01月07日公而不当

财经期刊FM-Radio|2021年01月07日

【今日热点新闻一览↓↓】央行定调2021:稳健的货币政策要灵活精准、合理适度,加强互联网平台公司金融活动审慎监管The central bank sets the tonefor 2021: prudent monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable andappropriate, and strengthen prudential supervision of financial activities ofInternet platform companies中国央行会议要求,强化支付领域监管,个人征信业务必须持牌经营,严禁金融产品过度营销,诱导过度负债,严肃查处侵害金融消费者合法权益的违法违规行为。确保金融创新在审慎监管前提下发展。The meeting of the People's Bank of Chinarequested that the supervision of the payment sector be strengthened, personalcredit investigation services must be operated under a license, excessivemarketing of financial procts, incing excessive debts, and seriousviolations of laws and regulations that violate the legal rights and interestsof financial consumers are strictly prohibited. Ensure that financialinnovation develops under the premise of prudential supervision.五部门联合发文:取消供水、供电、供气、供暖不合理收费!严禁实施垄断!The five departments jointlyissued a document: Cancel unreasonable charges for water, electricity, gas, andheating! Monopoly is strictly prohibited!加快推进竞争性环节的市场化。建立健全以“准许成本+合理收益”为核心的定价机制,合理制定并动态调整供水、供电、供气、供暖价格。Accelerate the marketization of competitivelinks. Establish and improve a pricing mechanism centered on "permittedcosts + reasonable benefits", and reasonably formulate and dynamicallyadjust prices for water, power, gas, and heating.住建部:时刻绷紧房地产市场调控这根弦,加快研究编制“十四五”住房发展规划Ministry of Housing and Urban-RuralDevelopment: Always tighten the string of real estate market regulation andspeed up the study and preparation of the "14th Five-Year" housingdevelopment plan加强对重点城市的指导,实施精准调控。支持人口净流入的大城市发展共有产权住房,供应范围逐步扩大到常住人口。在人口净流入的大城市重点发展政策性租赁住房。Strengthen guidance to key cities andimplement precise control. Support the development of shared property housingin big cities with a net population inflow, and graally expand the scope ofsupply to the permanent population. Focus on the development of policy-basedrental housing in large cities with net population inflows.中国12月财新服务业PMI回落至56.3 但仍位于过去十年来高位China's Caixin service instryPMI fell to 56.3 in December, but it is still at the highest level in the pastdecade中国服务业活动进一步扩张,增速虽未及此前两月,但仍是过去十年来最高记录之一,说明服务业从2020年初爆发的新冠疫情中复苏。China's service instry activities haveexpanded further. Although the growth rate is not as fast as the previous twomonths, it is still one of the highest records in the past decade, indicatingthat the service instry has recovered from the new crown epidemic that brokeout in early 2020.中字头股票集体爆发沪深300指数突破2015年高点Chinese stocks explodedcollectively, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index broke 2015 high周三A股沪指早盘冲高回落,沪深300指数也随之来到近13年新高。Wind数据显示,代表行业龙头走势的沪深300指数盘中突破2015年高点,最高触及5433.47点,为2008年1月以来首次。分析称,未来不管十年之后,A股公司从四千到六千家,最有价值还是前20%,还是核心资产。On Wednesday, the A-share Shanghai Indexrose and fell in early trading, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index alsoreached a new high in the past 13 years. Wind data shows that the Shanghai andShenzhen 300 Index, which represents the instry's leading trend, brokethrough the high point in 2015 ring the intraday session, reaching a maximumof 5433.47 points, the first time since January 2008. According to theanalysis, in the next ten years, the number of A-share companies from 4,000 to6,000 will be the top 20% or core assets.新财富第一王永锋:食品行业具有全球最好的量价关系,投食品等于投国运New Fortune No. 1 Wang Yongfeng:The food instry has the best volume-price relationship in the world.Investing in food is equivalent to investing in the country广发证券王永锋认为,研究消费品核心要研究量,量对应到最后就是人口;中国人口是14亿,是全球最大的,将来所有的东西量都是最大的。GF Securities Wang Yongfeng believes thatthe core of research on consumer procts should be the amount of research, andthe amount corresponds to the population; China's population is 1.4 billion,the largest in the world, and the amount of everything in the future will bethe largest.乳业股疯涨背后:新一轮原奶涨价周期来了Behind the skyrocketing of dairystocks: a new round of raw milk price increase cycle is coming乳业板块进入2021年持续强势。市场普遍认为,主要是受到龙头企业产品提价的推动。不过,伊利声称涨价是为了消化原奶成本上涨带来的压力。真的是这样吗?The dairy sector will continue to be stronginto 2021. The market generally believes that it is mainly driven by the pricehikes of leading companies. However, Yili claimed that the price increase wasto absorb the pressure of rising raw milk costs. Is it really?股价一度大跌7%,市值半日蒸发541亿港元!小米为何重挫?The stock price fell by 7%, andthe market value lost HK$54.1 billion in half a day! Why did Xiaomi fall sobadly?小米劲敌荣耀据称已与高通合作,推进5G手机研发。瑞银也宣布下调小米评级,建议“卖出”。Xiaomi's rival, Honor, is said to havecooperated with Qualcomm to advance the development of 5G mobile phones. UBSalso announced that it would downgrade Xiaomi and recommend a "sell".再反转!纽交所:将继续推动三家中国电信公司退市Reverse again! NYSE: Willcontinue to promote the delisting of three Chinese telecom companies据央视新闻,当地时间1月6日,美国纽约证券交易所发布公告,称“将根据美国法律继续推进下述公司的退市”。纽交所所指公司为中国电信股份有限公司、中国移动有限公司及中国联通(香港)有限公司。According to CCTV News, on January 6, localtime, the New York Stock Exchange issued an announcement stating that "thedelisting of the following companies will continue to be promoted in accordancewith US laws." The companies referred to by the NYSE are China TelecomCorporation Limited, China Mobile Corporation Limited and China Unicom (HongKong) Limited.商务部新闻发言人就美国政府拟对中国软件应用程序相关企业施加交易禁令事发表谈话The spokesperson of the Ministryof Commerce made a statement on the US government's proposed transaction ban onChinese software application related companies中方注意到,美方此次以保护隐私和国家安全为由,宣布将禁止美国人与8款中国应用程序相关企业进行交易。这一做法背离公平竞争原则,违反国际经贸规则,破坏正常的市场秩序,损害中国企业合法权益,也伤害了包括美国用户在内的广大消费者利益,将削弱全球投资者对美国营商环境的信心。The Chinese side noted that the USannounced that it would ban Americans from concting transactions withcompanies related to eight Chinese applications on the grounds of protectingprivacy and national security. This practice deviates from the principle offair competition, violates international economic and trade rules, disruptsnormal market order, harms the legitimate rights and interests of Chinesecompanies, and also harms the interests of consumers, including American users,and will weaken global investors’ understanding of the US business environment.confidence.特斯拉Model Y火爆到什么程度?提车从1个月变半年How popular is the Tesla Model Y?Pick up the car from 1 month to half a year国产Model Y原本1月份就能交付,现在,官方预期已经大大推迟到了二季度。“10分钟,新车订单超过10万辆”的威力太猛了!The domestic Model Y was originallydelivered in January, but now, the official expectation has been greatlypostponed to the second quarter. "In 10 minutes, the order of new carsexceeds 100,000" is too powerful!佐治亚参议员选举民主党2席全部胜出Georgia senator elects all 2Democrats to win当地时间1月6日下午,根据美国多家媒体统计民主党议员乔恩·奥索夫在佐治亚参议员选举中击败了共和党现任参议员大卫·珀杜。On the afternoon of January 6, local time,according to statistics from many US media, Democratic Congressman Jon Osoffdefeated the current Republican Senator David Pere in the Georgia Senateelection.美国国会骚乱,多个盟国领导人表态:震惊!The U.S. Congress riots, theleaders of many allies expressed their views: shock!当地时间1月6日下午,数百名抗议者聚集在美国首都华盛顿特区,为支持特朗普进行示威活动,以向正在进行的国会联席会议施压。随后,示威游行转向暴力倾向,部分示威者进入美国国会区域,并攻破了国会大厦,议员们已被紧急疏散。美国多个盟国领导人就此表态。On the afternoon of January 6, local time,hundreds of protesters gathered in Washington, DC, the capital of the UnitedStates, to demonstrate in support of Trump and to put pressure on the ongoingjoint congressional meeting. Subsequently, the demonstrations turned to violenttendencies. Some demonstrators entered the U.S. Congressional area and breachedthe Capitol. The congressmen have been evacuated urgently. Leaders of many USallies expressed their views on this.美联储12月纪要:全体官员支持购债速度,谈及“缩减购债”将类似2013-14年The Fed's December Minutes: Allofficials support the speed of debt purchases, and talk about "cuttingdebt purchases" will be similar to 2013-14纪要显示初增加购债久期的提议并没有得到太多官员支持,这次也是鲍威尔领导下的美联储文件中醒目出现“taper(缩减)”这个词。一些官员指出,一旦就业和物价目标取得了实质性的进一步进展,就可以开始“逐渐减少”购债,大体可以遵循2013至2014年大规模购债之后所实施的程序。The minutes show that the initial proposalto increase the ration of bond purchases did not receive much support fromofficials. This time, the word "taper" appeared prominently in theFederal Reserve document under Powell's leadership. Some officials pointed outthat once the employment and price targets have made substantial furtherprogress, they can begin to "graally rece" debt purchases,generally following the proceres implemented after large-scale debt purchasesfrom 2013 to 2014.“小非农”令人大跌眼镜!美国12月ADP减少12.3万人"Small non-agricultural" isshocking! U.S. ADP decreased by 123,000 in December美国12月ADP就业人数减少12.3万人,预期为增加7.5万人,前值为增加30.7万人(下修至30.4万人)。In the United States, the number of ADPemployment decreased by 123,000 in December, and is expected to increase by75,000. The previous value increased by 307,000 (revised down to 304,000).油价11个月新高!EIA油储降幅四个月最大,美国35年来首次没进口沙特石油11-month high oil prices! EIA oilreserves fell the most in four months, and the United States did not importSaudi oil for the first time in 35 years多家媒体调查数据显示,12月OPEC连续数月增产石油,但国际油价涨势依旧。沙特骤降出口美国石油量发出减少供应的最强信号,高盛最新研报维持2021年底布伦特目标价65美元的乐观预期,显著高于华尔街共识。Many media survey data show that inDecember, OPEC increased oil proction for several consecutive months, butinternational oil prices continued to rise. The sharp drop in Saudi Arabia’soil exports to the United States has sent the strongest signal to recesupply. Goldman Sachs’ latest research report maintains an optimistic forecastof Brent’s target price of $65 at the end of 2021, which is significantlyhigher than the Wall Street consensus.今日见闻历1月7日,星期四,宜反思On Thursday, January 7, reflect我国熔断机制失效主要有以下三点原因。其一,“磁吸效应”叠加涨跌停板客观上影响了市场流动性。其二,熔断机制的风险参数偏严。其三,我国以中小散户为主的投资者结构使熔断机制很难发挥作用。The failure of the fuse mechanism in our country mainly has the following three reasons. First, the "magnetic attraction effect" superimposed on price limits has objectively affected market liquidity. Second, the risk parameters of the fusing mechanism are relatively strict. Third, my country's investor structure dominated by small and medium retail investors makes it difficult for the circuit breaker to function.作者:张良信息咨询服务工作室Author: Zhang information consulting services studio链接:https://www.zzw868.cn/ https://www.zzw868.com/著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。The copyright belongs to the author. For commercial reprints, please contact the author for authorization. For non-commercial reprints, please indicate the source.风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。Risk Warning: The opinions mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended. Buy and sell accordingly at your own risk.来源:华尔街见闻Source: Wall Street

凯风

财经期刊FM-Radio|2020年11月30日

【今日热点新闻一览↓↓】人民日报:马保国闹剧,该立刻收场了;B站公告:即日起将严格限制审核管理马保国相关视频内容People's Daily: MaBaoguo farce, it should end immediately; B station announcement: from now onwill strictly limit the review and management of Ma Baoguo related videocontent人民日报刊文称,马保国闹剧,该立刻收场了。对那些热衷流量、推波助澜的互联网平台,如果还有起码的社会责任感,就应马上停止再为这种“丑行”“闹剧”提供传播渠道。B站公告:即日起将严格限制审核管理马保国相关视频内容。The People's Daily stated that Ma Baoguo's farce should end immediately.For those Internet platforms that are keen on traffic and fueling the flames,if they still have a minimum sense of social responsibility, they shouldimmediately stop providing communication channels for such "ugly" and"farce". Announcement at station B: From now on, the review and managementof Ma Baoguo related video content will be strictly restricted.肖钢:建议研究发行粤港澳大湾区证券Xiao Gang: Proposal to study the issuance of Guangdong-Hong Kong-MacaoGreater Bay Area securities原中国证监会主席肖钢建议,可以积极开展银行跨境贷款业务,探索私募股权投资,创投风投基金双向募集双向投资的新模式。支持粤港澳三地共同设立新产业投资基金和大湾区青年创业扶持基金。研究发行粤港澳大湾区证券,推进区域性股权交易市场的规范发展,设立人民币海外投资资金,促进金融服务的多元化、特色化的发展。Xiao Gang,the former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, suggestedthat banks can actively carry out cross-border loan business, explore privateequity investment, and venture capital and venture capital funds to raise a newmodel of two-way investment. Support Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao to jointlyestablish a new instry investment fund and a youth entrepreneurship supportfund in the Greater Bay Area. Research and issuance of Guangdong-HongKong-Macao Greater Bay Area securities, promote the standardized development ofregional equity trading markets, set up RMB overseas investment funds, andpromote the diversified and characteristic development of financial services.社科院专家:建议取消土地使用权年限Experts of the Academy of Social Sciences: It is recommended to cancelthe period of land use rights社科院农村发展研究所研究员党国英表示,应进一步深化土地制度市场化改革,建立合理的不动产税收制度,降低土地使用权的分配差距,改善居住形态。(中新社)DangGuoying, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Academy ofSocial Sciences, said that the market-oriented reform of the land system shouldbe further deepened, a reasonable real estate taxation system should beestablished, the distribution gap of land use rights should be reced, and theliving form should be improved. (China News Service)重庆已对3283人进行核酸采样出结果2674人均为阴性Chongqing hascarried out nucleic acid sampling on 3283 people, and 2674 people were negativeSK海力士半导体(重庆)公司韩国籍员工出境后被确定为无症状感染者。韩某某所工作的企业已暂时停产。目前已开展核酸检测的人员、已进行采样检测的物品、环境等,检测结果均为阴性。A Korean employee of SK Hynix Semiconctor (Chongqing) was determinedto be asymptomatically infected after leaving the country. Han's company hastemporarily suspended proction. At present, the test results of people whohave carried out nucleic acid testing, items that have been sampled and tested,and the environment are all negative.深圳再现“万人抢房”,中一套暴赚500万!新华社:需“硬核”举措抑制“打新热”Shenzhen reappeared"ten thousand people robbed houses" and made a huge profit of 5million! Xinhua News Agency: Need for "hard core" measures to curb"new craze"深圳“华润城润玺一期”均价13.2万/㎡左右,而周边二手房均价18万以上,巨大套利空间引发了众筹打新、代持购房的现象,中签名额售价高至200万元。新华社文章称,“打新热”现象警示,增加供给、新房限价之外,楼市调控还有很多事要做,比如更多地关注住房流向,加强对持有环节的调控,让税收杠杆发挥更大作用。建立科学合理的房地产税制度,通过市场化手段抑制投资投机行为,或许能收釜底抽薪之效。The average price of Shenzhen "China Resources City Runxi PhaseI" is about 132,000/m2, while the average price of surrounding second-handhouses is more than 180,000. The huge arbitrage space has triggered thephenomenon of crowdfunding to buy new houses and buying houses on behalf ofothers. 2 million yuan. According to the Xinhua News Agency article, thephenomenon of "cracking new fever" warns that in addition toincreasing supply and price limits for new houses, there are still many thingsto be done in the regulation of the property market, such as paying moreattention to the flow of housing, strengthening the regulation of holdinglinks, and letting tax leverage. Play a bigger role. Establishing a scientificand reasonable real estate tax system, and curbing investment speculationthrough market-based means, may be able to collect salaries from the bottom ofthe pile.中东“历史性协议”功亏一篑:沙特、以色列关系正常化会谈无果而终The Middle East"historical agreement" fell short: talks on the normalization ofrelations between Saudi Arabia and Israel ended in vain华尔街日报报道称,沙特最终退出了谈判,这主要是由于现任美国政府即将下台,沙特不希望此时做出决定,而是等到拜登上台后,以此来巩固与美国新一届政府的关系。The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia finally withdrew fromthe negotiations, mainly because the current US government is about to stepdown. Saudi Arabia does not want to make a decision at this time, but waitsuntil Biden takes office to consolidate relations with the new USadministration. .英国“抢跑”:下周批准辉瑞/BioNTech疫苗,最早12月7日接种UK "Run":Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine approved next week, vaccination as early as December 7英国国家医疗服务体系负责人称,医院最早将于12月7日收到由辉瑞和BioNTech生产的首批疫苗,监管部门预计将在几天内批准。The person in charge of the British National Medical Service System saidthat the hospital will receive the first batch of vaccines proced by Pfizerand BioNTech as early as December 7, and the regulatory authorities areexpected to approve it within a few days.杨伟民:到2035年经济总量或人均收入翻一番需年均增长4.73%Yang Weimin: Todouble the economic aggregate or per capita income by 2035 requires an averageannual growth of 4.73%全国政协经济委员会副主任杨伟民表示,中国到2035年实现经济总量或者人均收入翻一番是有条件的,这要求未来15年年均增长4.73%,这个条件是具备的。Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the NationalCommittee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, statedthat China has conditions to double its economic aggregate or per capita incomeby 2035. This requires an average annual growth rate of 4.73% in the next 15years. This condition is met.伊朗核科学家遇袭身亡,被西方国家认定领导秘密"核武"项目Iranian nuclearscientist died in an attack and was recognized by Western countries as leadingthe secret "nuclear weapons" project西方国家长期以来将法赫里扎德描述为一个秘密核武计划的领导人,认为他领导伊朗的“Amad”计划,研究在伊朗制造核武器的可行性。Western countries have long described Fahrizad as the leader of a secretnuclear weapons program, thinking that he is leading Iran's "Amad"program to study the feasibility of manufacturing nuclear weapons in Iran.商务部贸易救济调查局负责人:美财政部报告以中方“缺乏透明度”为由,没有提供任何数据分析即得出2019年人民币对美元汇率低估5%的结论,是完全错误的。(商务部)Head of the TradeRemedy and Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce: The US TreasuryDepartment’s report used China’s “lack of transparency” as an excuse toconclude that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2019 wasundervalued by 5% without any data analysis. (Ministry of Commerce)作者:张良信息咨询服务工作室Author: Zhang information consulting services studio链接:https://www.zzw868.cn/ https://www.zzw868.com/著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。The copyright belongs to the author. For commercial reprints, please contact the author for authorization. For non-commercial reprints, please indicate the source.风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。Risk Warning: The opinions mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended. Buy and sell accordingly at your own risk.来源:华尔街见闻Source: Wall Street

日夜无降

《财经》杂志:BATH四大科技巨头亮出新基建家底

总部位于北京西长安街的国家电网有限公司是中国基础设施建设领域的代名词。今天的人们总以“像使用水电一样使用云、大数据”来形容数字基础设施以后的光辉前景,这是国家发布新基建政策的初衷所在,也是未来数字社会的基石。国家电网的电力网络覆盖国土面积的88%以上,供电服务人口超过11亿人。6月15日,这个维持了几乎整个中国的电力网络运行的巨无霸公司进行了一场大型云签约仪式,和百度、阿里、腾讯、华为为代表的一众科技公司签署“数字新基建”战略合作协议。项目计划布局十大重点领域,包括电网数字化平台、能源大数据中心、电力大数据应用、电力物联网、能源工业云网、智慧能源综合服务、能源互联网5G应用、电力人工智能应用、能源区块链应用、电力北斗应用等项目。今年总投资约247亿元,预计拉动社会投资约1000亿元。每一个出现在这个合作中的科技公司都有不同的擅长领域,也会在不同角度去和国网合作。百度、阿里、腾讯和华为是中国目前在数字化市场的领先公司,它们从市场拓荒开始,引领了这一轮中国数字经济的落地发展和变革。今年3月4日,中共中央政治局常务委员会召开的会议上强调,要加快推进国家规划已明确的重大工程和基础设施建设,尤其要加快新基建步伐,这可看作是中国信息时代和数字时代的分水岭。此后至今,新基建投资浪潮涌动,国网是其中一个典型案例。在这一轮新基建投资热潮中,政府的投资仅作为引导,更大的投资来自民间。尤其在信息科技领域,作为新基建的重点,信息科技技术含量高、投资规模小、未来需求空间大,在减少政府投资压力的情况下可以有效吸引社会资本的投入,更适合中国应对目前的经济困境。科技巨头们在这一轮浪潮中面临的机会最多,挑战最大,需要做的,也将更多。01从何处发力?根据国家发改委对新基建的解读,新型基础设施可大致分为三个方面内容。一是信息基础设施。主要是指基于新一代信息技术演化生成的基础设施,比如,以5G、物联网、工业互联网、卫星互联网为代表的通信网络基础设施,以人工智能、云计算、区块链等为代表的新技术基础设施,以数据中心、智能计算中心为代表的算力基础设施等。二是融合基础设施。主要是指深度应用互联网、大数据、人工智能等技术,支撑传统基础设施转型升级,进而形成的融合基础设施,比如,智能交通基础设施、智慧能源基础设施等。三是创新基础设施。主要是指支撑科学研究、技术开发、产品研制的具有公益属性的基础设施,比如,重大科技基础设施、科教基础设施、产业技术创新基础设施等。三类基础设施看似泾渭分明,但实质上相互联系不可分割。5G提供高速连接,云计算提供强大算力,AI解决最根本的问题:产业智能化。不论是数字化、在线化、+互联网还是上云,最终目标都是实现智能化,进而降本增效、转型升级,能源基础设施、交通基础设施也需要物联网技术赋能。也就是说,云计算、大数据、人工智能、物联网、5G等技术必须协同发展,才能产生聚变效应和辐射效应。四大科技巨头进入数字产业的时间和重点各自不同,如果详细拆解可以发现,除了仅有华为在5G领域深耕,在其他所有领域,它们几乎都涉足了,并在一些领域形成比较性优势。以百度为例,百度的强项是AI。今年6月,百度向外界公布了自己的AI新基建版图。这张版图显示,百度正依托包括百度大脑、飞桨、智能云、芯片、数据中心等在内的新型AI基础设施,推动智能交通、智慧城市、智慧金融、智慧能源、智慧医疗、工业互联网和智能制造等领域实现产业智能化升级,目标是成为中国新基建AI服务最大提供商。百度是中国最早进行AI技术探索的科技公司,也是目前唯一一个以AI为抓手布局公司未来战略的科技巨头。今年7月初,百度CTO王海峰在接受《财经》记者专访时解释,百度既是AI基础设施建设者,也是AI技术及应用创新引领者和推动者。而他本人,既要为技术的先进性负责,也要为技术的应用效果负责。目前AI技术在各行各业的应用尚不普及,但不少科技公司可以提供基于云计算的AI解决方案和产品。百度如何脱颖而出?王海峰认为,百度现成的产品可能不是最丰富的,但百度擅长基于技术打造最适合需求的产品。这一底气来自百度十年来逐步体系化的AI技术体系。这些“技术”底气包括但不限于:服务190多万开发者的百度大脑,国内首个、目前开发者规模最大、功能最完备的开源开放深度学习平台飞桨,位居国内公有云第一阵营的百度智能云,研究前沿技术和创新应用的百度研究院,自主研发的AI芯片,以及全球第二的深度学习专利数量,等等。在和国家电网确定了战略合作框架之后,7月,百度在一周内马不停蹄连签三个大单,签约对象为中国建材集团、浦发银行和上海浦东新区。外部看来,这似乎是一个很不错的开局。内部来看,这样的机会,显得珍贵又不可求。一位在百度多年的技术员工对《财经》记者说,这些年外界都在谈百度错失了很多机会,尤其在AI这条道路上,百度走得孤独且波折,现在看起来,大机遇可能确实要来了。百度强调“智能云”,阿里则强调“云智能”。阿里巴巴旗下阿里云,是中国云计算的开创者,也是领导者。国际研究机构Gartner今年5月发布的最新数据显示,亚太市场,阿里云排名第一,市场份额从26%上涨至28%,接近亚马逊和微软总和。有人统计,阿里云为超过一半的A股上市公司、80%中国科技创新企业提供服务。另一组数据是,今年,技术出身的张建锋将阿里云带上了770亿美元的估值,2018年张建锋刚刚接任时,这个数字为390亿美元,不到两年,阿里云的估值几近翻番。阿里“云智能”的深层逻辑是“云为底座”。这家公司的云计算能力是最突出的,但云只是底盘,这些年来,集合了5G、物联网、工业互联网、云计算、人工智能、区块链、云数据中心等多种信息基础设施,并通过城市大脑、工业大脑等深度参与融合基础设施的新基建全能型参与者。阿里认为,云计算是规模经济,随着规模扩大,云向上能定义软件,向下能定义硬件,并推动IT世界趋向软硬一体。今年,张建锋给阿里云定下了一个新的目标:做深基础——从飞天云操作系统向下延伸定义硬件;做厚中台——将钉钉这样的新型操作系统与阿里云进行深度融合,实现“云钉一体”;做强生态——基于云和新型操作系统,构建一个繁荣的应用服务生态。钉钉是阿里云底座上长出的又一个新业务容器。一位云领域的资深创业者评价,钉钉要做大,会选择集成的思路来加速商业拓展步伐。目前钉钉生态体系里的ISV基本是处于培育期的种子选手,还没有跑出能够撑场面的明星代言人,但只要一直坚持做下去,自然会引来真正厉害的合作伙伴,种子选手中也总有一些能跑出来。“看准一个方向然后持续努力,最终把当初看起来像吹牛的东西实现出来,把竞争对手耗死在半路上,这一直是阿里和华为成功的原因。”他说,“所以虽然我不喜欢钉钉当前的产品功能,但是看好它的未来。”腾讯在To B市场的布局晚了几年,但这家公司在产业互联网领域的布局决心越来越坚定。今年,距离腾讯2018年面向“产业互联网”的930架构大调整将近两年,腾讯成立云和智慧产业事业群(CSIG)负责该战略落地,腾讯云整合腾讯技术、支付、社交等能力,给政企、金融、医疗、教育、交通等行业提供数字化方案。腾讯的优势是C端社交,目前的状态是“扎根消费互联网,拥抱产业互联网”,其业务广度与阿里近乎相当,两者的野心均是助力各行各业数字化升级。7月,腾讯优图实验室宣布整合优图视觉AI在泛娱乐、广电传媒、内容审核、工业等领域的多年技术积累和产业实践经验,推出四大AI开放平台。华为在新基建上的野心,有5G打底。从5G订单数、专利数及基站的出货量来看,华为都是全球5G领域的核心玩家。5G之外,华为尤其聚焦重视的两个技术是云和AI,从华为的角度来看,新基建时代的“路”是以5G为核心的新联接,“电”就是新的云与计算。其中AI强调全栈全场景AI,直接对标百度。今年以来,美国政府对华为的打压丝毫没有降低力度,甚至有加码趋势。但借助5G和新基建的东风,华为的脚步依然没有停下。据华为公布的最近财报数据,2020年上半年,公司实现销售收入4540亿元人民币,同比增长13.1%,净利润率9.2%。其中,运营商业务收入为1596亿元人民币,企业业务收入为363亿元人民币,消费者业务收入为2558亿元人民币。这组数据,基于华为海外市场停滞大半的前提之下。02向何处着力从勉强保持供电,到全国范围内24小时不断电,中国花费了数十年时间。新基建风口已经到来,它将不是一场急行军,而是要花费同样长时间来完成的技术全面进阶。和20年前不同的是,在这一轮新基建建设浪潮中,中国不缺专门提供相应基础设施的国企,也不缺新型科技公司,缺的是一群对十年后中国经济成长承担责任的科技公司。这次被囊括进国家新基建范围的技术和应用有一些共性,核心技术如操作系统、芯片、底层训练框架等始终如一。过去数年,科技巨头们已经意识到了自主技术的重要性。它们的视野越来越下沉,投入重兵研发底层自主技术。四大科技巨头投入的重点聚焦在芯片、操作系统等领域。例如,百度自研的飞桨深度学习平台,百度昆仑、鸿鹄芯片;阿里的云操作系统飞天,以及端操作系统、数据库、互联网中间件、服务器“神龙”及AI芯片NPU等。今年4月20日,阿里宣布,未来三年再投2000亿元,用于云操作系统、服务器、芯片、网络等重大核心技术研发攻坚和面向未来的数据中心建设。紧接着,5月26日,腾讯宣布未来五年将投入5000亿元布局新基建。5000亿元重点会花在云计算、区块链、服务器、超算中心、人工智能、5G网络、网络安全、量子计算、音视频通讯、大型数据中心以及物联网操作系统等方面。百度不遑多让。6月19日,百度宣布,未来十年将继续加大在人工智能、芯片、云计算、数据中心等新基建领域的投入,并预计到2030年,百度智能云服务器台数将超过500万台。当天,百度也宣布未来五年预计培养AI人才500万。可以看出攻坚核心技术,是上述三大巨头未来投资的一个重要方向。不同于BAT,华为迄今尚未明确表示要投入多少资金、培养多少新基建人才等。不过,在芯片、操作系统等领域的自主研发方面,过去数年,华为走得飞快,最受外界关注的是自研操作系统鸿蒙。自2018年12月加拿大事件后,华为密集推出一系列自主研发芯片和服务器平台产品。如服务器芯片“鲲鹏”和服务器平台“泰山”、5G基站核心芯片“天罡”、基带芯片“巴龙”及搭载华为自研路由器芯片“凌霄”等。这些名字均取自《山海经》,华为的山海经军团规模迄今仍在不断扩大。结合目前波谲云诡的国际环境,中国AI领域的一位资深技术专家向《财经》记者评价,芯片、CPU和操作系统是当下公认的需要加大自主可控的核心领域,但它们不是全部,比如在AI领域,除了芯片,做强基础层技术的研发,做大训练框架等基础领域也同样重要。中国已形成较完整的AI产业链,但在AI通用芯片、开源深度学习算法框架等方面仍受制于人。发展“AI新基建”,必须紧抓AI底层核心能力的自主创新。“完整性很重要。”王海峰对《财经》记者说。开发一个推理的模块,这个事情其实不少公司都做了。但是一个完整的训练平台,这个就要难得多了。2016年,百度开源了完全自主的深度学习框架PaddlePaddle(现中文名“飞桨”)。在AI领域,深度学习框架起到了承上启下的作用,下接芯片,上承各种业务模型、行业应用。它好比PC时代操作系统windows、移动时代的安卓/IOS,让开发者能够在其上像搭积木一样构建自己的AI应用。目前,飞桨广泛应用于工业、农业、服务业等,服务190多万开发者。飞桨对标的是谷歌的TensorFlow,后者是目前全球最受开发者欢迎的深度学习框架。波士顿咨询在2019年底发布的一份报告数据显示,国外人工智能开发框架中,TensorFlow活跃度和搜索量打分高达96.77,排位第二的Keras打分为51.55。国内有不少互联网企业、人工智能创企,都在使用TensorFlow。多位使用TensorFlow的开发者向《财经》记者表示,TensorFlow功能齐全,开发便利,选择它,是为了“站在巨人的肩膀上做更擅长的应用创新”。和TensorFlow相比,飞桨最大的意义不在于今天它做到多强、多大,而在于它存在,并迈过了最难的阶段。和芯片、操作系统类似,各类技术或代码框架、平台虽然名义上是开源的,但依然要受其所在国家法律与行政命令的制约。国际形势波谲云诡的环境下,随时有断供风险。“今天能用,明天不能用,迟早要解决这样的状态。”王海峰说。回忆七年历程,他总结,飞桨难做,难在底层技术开发,难在搭建能力。开发者生态方面,当开发者数量跨过100万门槛后,最艰难的起步期已经安全度过了。这是一个技术价值再度闪耀的时代。技术可能是敲开一个新时代大门的金手指。所有人,包括四大科技公司在内,都在路上。对于百度来说,接下来的挑战是飞桨等底层技术的清晰规划。这既包括近期,还要看到五年以后、十年以后的路径。对于芯片、操作系统来说,完全自主可控既不现实也无可能,结合近期华为芯片断供的现实,除了专利、技术,还需要政府支持和引导,实现全产业链、供应链的防范和保障。“新基建”带来的数字化生产力正迅速转化为经济复苏的驱动力。国家统计局最新发布的数据显示,1月至4月,计算机及办公设备制造业投资增长15.4%,科技成果转化服务业投资增长28.0%,电子商务服务业投资增长25.6%,专业技术服务业投资增长12.5%。多省市政府出台新基建规划,在资本市场,新基建炙手可热的状态已经持续数月。“越是风口来了,越要看准方向,脚踏实地,才能走得更远,否则,就飘起来了。”王海峰说。

必变

财经期刊FM-Radio|2021年01月05日

【今日热点新闻一览↓↓】国常会:通过印花税法草案证券交易印花税纳入法律规范The National Standing Committee:Passed the draft stamp ty law and included securities transaction stamp tyinto legal regulations草案规定买卖、技术等合同和证券交易的税率维持不变,降低加工承揽、建设工程勘察设计、货物运输合同和营业账簿的税率,取消许可证照等的印花税税目,同时明确现行印花税税收优惠政策总体不变。The draft stipulates that the tax rates forsales, technology and other contracts and securities transactions remainunchanged, rece the tax rates for processing contracts, constructionengineering survey and design, cargo transportation contracts and businessaccount books, abolish stamp tax items such as licenses, and clarify thecurrent overall stamp tax preferential policies constant.央行最新论文:点名地方政府金融监管四大问题将强化新兴金融业务监管The latest paper from the CentralBank: naming the four major issues of local government financial supervisionwill strengthen the supervision of emerging financial services当前,一些地方金融机构依托科技手段实现全国展业、突破原有地域范围,经营波动性和风险外溢性大幅增加,对此原有的地方金融监管明显不足,需要在充分调查研究的基础上制定和完善监管政策,加强中央垂直监管与地方属地监管之间的协调,共同做好金融新业态的风险防范。At present, some local financialinstitutions rely on scientific and technological means to achieve nationaldevelopment and break through the original geographical scope. Operationalvolatility and risk spillover have increased significantly. For this reason,the original local financial supervision is obviously insufficient, and it isnecessary to formulate and formulate on the basis of full investigation andresearch. Improve regulatory policies, strengthen coordination between thecentral vertical supervision and local territorial supervision, and worktogether to prevent risks in new financial formats.中国12月财新制造业PMI回落至53,但仍显著高于荣枯线China's Caixin manufacturing PMIfell to 53, but it was still significantly above the line of prosperity在全球需求转强、新冠疫情结束等预期因素下,中国制造业界普遍相信未来一年产量将会超过目前水平。With the expected factors such as strongerglobal demand and the end of the new crown epidemic, the Chinese manufacturinginstry generally believes that the output in the next year will exceed thecurrent level.工信部谈新能源车:将围绕碳中和目标制定汽车产业实施路线图The Ministry of Instry andInformation Technology talks about new energy vehicles: A roadmap for theimplementation of the automobile instry will be formulated around the goal ofcarbon neutrality肖亚庆表示,将强化整车集成技术创新,推动电动化与网联化、智能化并行发展。他还称,对5G要“保持耐心、留出空间。不久的将来,5G将带来令人欣喜甚至意想不到的变化。”Xiao Yaqing said that it will strengthenthe innovation of vehicle integration technology and promote the paralleldevelopment of electrification, interconnection and intelligence. He also saidthat “be patient and leave room for 5G. In the near future, 5G will bringgratifying and even unexpected changes.”小鹏汽车12月交付量5700,同比增326%,刷新历史新高Xiaopeng Motors delivered 5,700in December, a year-on-year increase of 326%, a record high小鹏P7、小鹏G3单月交付量均创2020年新高。整个四季度,小鹏汽车累计交付12964台,同比增长303%,超出公司对四季度10000台的指引近30%。The monthly deliveries of Xpeng P7 andXpeng G3 both hit new highs in 2020. Throughout the fourth quarter, XiaopengMotors delivered a total of 12,964 units, a year-on-year increase of 303%,which exceeded the company's guidance of 10,000 units in the fourth quarter bynearly 30%.“电动神车”宏光MINI五个月卖了将近13万辆!伪概念股五菱汽车飙了30%!"Electric God Car"Hongguang MINI has sold nearly 130,000 in five months! Pseudo-concept stockWuling Automobile soared by 30%!过去三个月,五菱宏光MINI一直稳坐全国新能源车销售冠军,完全碾压特斯拉Model 3,单日最高曾卖掉2000辆!In the past three months, Wuling HongguangMINI has been firmly in the national new energy vehicle sales champion,completely overwhelming Tesla Model 3, and has sold a maximum of 2,000 vehiclesin a single day!拜腾汽车与富士康签战略合作协议,力推概念车明年一季度量产Byton Auto signed astrategic cooperation agreement with Foxconn to promote mass proction ofconcept cars in the first quarter of next year1月4日,澎湃新闻从拜腾汽车处了解到,拜腾汽车与富士康科技集团、南京经济技术开发区签署战略合作框架协议,合力加速推进拜腾首款车型M-Byte的量产制造工作,力争在2022年第一季度前实现M-Byte量产。On January 4, The Paper learned from BytonMotors that Byton Motors signed a strategic cooperation framework agreementwith Foxconn Technology Group and Nanjing Economic and TechnologicalDevelopment Zone to jointly accelerate the mass proction and manufacturing ofByton’s first model M-Byte , And strive to achieve mass proction of M-Bytebefore the first quarter of 2022.新能源车太火爆了,重型机械巨头徐工集团斥资55亿杀入战局New energy vehicles are toopopular, heavy machinery giant Xugong Group invested 5.5 billion into the war新能源车是真的火,徐工集团青山控股狂砸55亿,新能源重卡不是梦?New energy vehicles are really popular. XCMG Qingshan Holdings smashed5.5 billion yuan. Is new energy heavy truck a dream?媒体:滴滴计划今年上市,或赴港IPO,估值最高800亿美元Media: Didi plans to go publicthis year or go to Hong Kong for an IPO, with a valuation of up to US$80billion疫情期间,网约车订单量一度跌至1000万单以下。在此背景下,“一些投资人急于变现。”During the epidemic, the number of onlinecar-hailing orders fell below 10 million. In this context, "some investorsare eager to cash out."全文首次公开!海南自由贸易港法开始征求意见!The full text is released for thefirst time! The Hainan Free Trade Port Law begins to solicit opinions!草案提出,鼓励海南省在国务院批准的限额内发行地方政府债券支持海南自由贸易港项目建设。设立政府引导、市场化方式运作的海南自由贸易港建设投资基金。The draft proposes to encourage HainanProvince to issue local government bonds within the quota approved by the StateCouncil to support the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port project.Establish a government-guided and market-oriented Hainan Free Trade Portconstruction investment fund.2021年元旦档票房创新高New Year's Day boxoffice record high in 2021国家电影局4日发布数据,2021年1月1日至3日(元旦档)全国电影票房达12.99亿元,打破了2018年创造的12.71亿元档期票房历史纪录,其中元旦当日票房6.01亿元,同比增长107.12%,刷新2018年创造的3.68亿元元旦单日票房纪录。The National Film Bureau released data onthe 4th. From January 1 to 3, 2021 (New Year's Day file), the national moviebox office reached 1.299 billion yuan, breaking the historical record of 1.271billion yuan box office created in 2018, of which 601 million yuan on NewYear's Day , A year-on-year increase of 107.12%, breaking the single-day boxoffice record of 368 million yuan on New Year’s Day created in 2018.今天又涨517亿元,中国新首富=马云+2个王健林!什么生意这么赚钱?Today it rose 51.7 billion yuan,China's new richest man = Jack Ma + 2 Wang Jianlin! What business is soprofitable?这是中国人首次进入彭博全球亿万富豪排行榜前十,而钟晱晱的身家距离第六位的巴菲特也仅差14亿美元。This is the first time that a Chinese has enteredthe top ten of Bloomberg's global billionaires list, and Zhong Weiyi's networth is only US$1.4 billion short of the sixth-placed Buffett.员工猝死事件发酵拼多多美股下跌超6% 上海劳动监察部门已介入开展检查Sudden death of employeesfermented, Pinoo US stocks fell more than 6%, Shanghai labor inspectiondepartment has stepped in to carry out inspections知乎拼多多官方账号发布的有关员工意外去世言论引发市场关注,拼多多澄清未发布过网传回应。目前,上海劳动监察部门已介入开展检查。Knowing that the remarks on the accidentaldeath of employees released by Pinoo's official account have aroused marketattention, Pinoo has clarified that it has not issued an online response.At present, the Shanghai Labor Supervision Department has stepped in to carryout inspections英国首相宣布在英格兰全境再次实施最严格管控措施The British Prime Ministerannounces that the strictest control measures will be implemented againthroughout England当地时间4日晚20时(北京时间5日4时),英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊发表电视讲话,宣布从5日起到2月中旬,英国全境实施最高级别严格管控措施,取代目前在英格兰地区分别实施的四级、三级以及二级管控措施,以阻断目前迅速蔓延的新冠病毒感染疫情。At 20 pm local time on the 4th (4 pm on the5th Beijing time), British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivered a televisedspeech, announcing that from the 5th to mid-February, the UK will implement thehighest level of strict control measures throughout the country, replacing thecurrent one in England The four-level, three-level, and second-level controlmeasures implemented by the regions respectively to stop the rapidly spreadingnew coronavirus infection epidemic.为了加快接种速度,美国政府考虑将Moderna剂量减半In order to speed up thevaccination rate, the US government is considering halving the dose of Moderna特朗普政府曾称,2020年底前将完成2000万人的疫苗接种,但目前完成的接种量还不到四分之一。为加快疫苗接种进度,美国官员考虑对青壮年的疫苗接种减半。The Trump administration once stated that20 million people will be vaccinated before the end of 2020, but less than aquarter of the total number of vaccinations currently completed. To speed upthe vaccination schele, US officials are considering halving the vaccinationfor young alts.奥运会又悬了?新年伊始,日本考虑宣布东京重新进入紧急状态The Olympics are hanging again?At the beginning of the new year, Japan is considering declaring Tokyo's stateof emergency again若紧急状态实施,将使日本国内生产总值减少2.8万亿日元(5%),并使奥运前景变得暗淡。If the state of emergency is implemented,it will rece Japan's GDP by 2.8 trillion yen (5%) and dim the outlook for theOlympics.运输延误“因祸得福”?美12月Markit制造业PMI终值意外升至六年最高Transportation delays "ablessing in disguise"? US December Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedlyrises to the highest in six years推动整体指数终值不降反升的主要驱动力是“供应商绩效大幅下降”,成本负担被显著推升,产出价格指数创2011年5月以来最高,供应商交货时间创史上最长。分析称,尽管暂时数据改善,这两个原因将限制生产能力、加剧美国制造业困境。The main driving force for the final valueof the overall index to rise instead of falling is "supplier performancehas dropped significantly", cost burden has been significantly pushed up,output price index hit the highest since May 2011, and supplier delivery timeis the longest in history . According to the analysis, despite the temporarydata improvement, these two reasons will limit proction capacity andexacerbate the plight of the US manufacturing instry.成立仅三年“三巨头”合资的医疗保健公司Haven将于下月解体The healthcare company Haven, ajoint venture of the “Big Three”, will be disintegrated next month成立三年后,由亚马逊、伯克希尔哈撒韦、摩根大通组成的合资医疗保健公司Haven即将于今年2月底解散。Haven的关闭可能预示着,从根本上改善美国的医疗保健系统十分困难。Three years after its establishment, Haven,a joint healthcare company composed of Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorganChase, will soon be dissolved at the end of February this year. The closure ofHaven may indicate that it is very difficult to fundamentally improve the US healthcaresystem.OPEC+2月按兵不动?俄罗斯提议继续缩小减产 但多数国家反对OPEC+ will not move in February?Russia proposes to continue to rece proction, but most countries oppose媒体称,本周OPEC+会上,俄罗斯提议2月将减产规模再缩小50万桶/日,但大部分OPEC+国家都反对2月进一步增产,沙特等国支持将1月的联合减产规模保持到2月。According to the media, at the OPEC+meeting this week, Russia proposed to rece the scale of proction cuts byanother 500,000 barrels per day in February, but most OPEC+ countries opposefurther increases in proction in February, and countries such as Saudi Arabiasupport keeping the joint proction cuts in January to 2 month.玩得就是心跳!创纪录新高后,比特币大幅回调17%,创3月以来最大单日跌幅Play is heartbeat!After hitting a record high, Bitcoin pulled back 17% sharply, the biggestone-day drop since March比特币一度单日暴跌5500美元;历史经验显示,在比特币四季度表现出色的年份中,后续新年1月常常会经历回撤。Bitcoin once plunged $5,500 in a singleday; historical experience has shown that in the years when Bitcoin performedwell in the fourth quarter, the subsequent new year January often experienced aretracement.今日见闻历1月5日,星期二,忌迷糊Tuesday, January 5th, don’t get confused芒格告诉大家,迫切想知道事情的原委是好事。他断言,长期来看,这种思维方式能够提高我们解决现实问题的能力。不关心事情始末的人注定会失败,就是再聪明也无济于事。Munger told everyone that it is a good thing to desperately want to know what happened. He asserted that in the long run, this way of thinking can improve our ability to solve real-world problems. People who don't care about the whole thing are doomed to fail, no matter how smart they are, it will not help.今日要闻前瞻美国12月ISM制造业指数。作者:张良信息咨询服务工作室Author: Zhang information consulting services studio链接:https://www.zzw868.cn/ https://www.zzw868.com/著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。The copyright belongs to the author. For commercial reprints, please contact the author for authorization. For non-commercial reprints, please indicate the source.风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。Risk Warning: The opinions mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended. Buy and sell accordingly at your own risk.来源:华尔街见闻Source: Wall Street

左拉传

SABIC携手《财经》杂志及《财经智库》发布“全球经济信心指数”

全球经济遭遇重大挑战,化工行业基本长期向好上海2020年4月13日 /美通社/ -- 近日,世界知名的多元化化工企业沙特基础工业公司(SABIC)携手《财经》杂志及《财经智库》在线发布了“疫情下的全球经济信心指数”。会上,SABIC副总裁兼北亚区总裁李雷、清华大学国家金融研究院院长及IMF原副总裁朱民、长江商学院实践教授、大企业治理与创新中心研究员及前中石化董事长傅成玉、中国社会科学院学部委员及国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬、北京大学国家发展研究院院长姚洋、中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕生、中国人民大学副校长刘元春和中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷八位相关领域专家针对此前由SABIC和财经共同发起的《2020全球经济信心指数》及《2020能源化工前瞻指数》调查结果,共同探讨了全球与中国经济面临的即时风险、未来前景以及应对之道。SABIC副总裁兼北亚区总裁李雷指出,2020年全球经济信心承压明显,化工行业预计在经历短期震荡后维持基本长期向好态势。他进一步表示:“人类社会因为前所未有的紧密联接,无意间触发了一场前所未有的全球疫情。然而以邻为壑显然并非是可行的退路,真正的出路应该是协作,是进一步强化现有的紧密联接,调整与深化目前的全球化格局。人类命运共同体,理应共同承担对未来的希冀。”SABIC携手《财经》杂志及《财经智库》,历时近3个月,面向全球经济学家、企业家和政商财界知名人士与意见领袖进行了全球经济信心指数调查。同时,为了解重要垂直行业的发展前景,更准确把握宏观经济脉搏,今年的报告还特别关注了广泛渗透国民经济各环节的能源化工行业,并联合中国石油和化学工业联合会等权威机构和专家首次开展了专项调查。调查结果显示:疫情成为冲击全球经济的最大黑天鹅,长达十年的全球经济扩张周期可能结束;受内外需下滑影响,受访者认为2020年中国经济将面临较大的下行压力。但相比投资和出口,消费作为经济增长压舱石的作用将更加凸显,也是今年对冲疫情的重要方向。但更长远看,疫情可能导致全球产业链格局初现分散化、多中心化的新趋势,对如何保持中国的制造业中心地位与促进产业升级则提出新的挑战。除了本次重磅发布的全球经济信心指数,SABIC在中国还持续投身包括博鳌亚洲论坛与中国高层发展论坛在内的一系列顶级对话平台,聚焦思想领导力建设。作为助力中国实现包容性增长的长期伙伴,SABIC也一直致力于扩大在华业务规模。目前SABIC在上海拥有一座先进的研发中心,在上海、广州和重庆建有三家工厂,业务范围遍及中国14个城市,并与中石化在天津建有一家合资公司 -- 中沙(天津)石化有限公司(SSTPC)。沙特基础工业公司携手《财经》杂志及《财经智库》联合发布“全球经济信心指数” 沙特基础工业公司副总裁兼北亚区总裁李雷

静居则溺

财经期刊FM-Radio|2020年12月03日

【今日热点新闻一览↓↓】国常会:部署加快做好区域全面经济伙伴关系协定生效实施有关工作等National StandingCommittee: Deploy and accelerate the implementation of the regionalcomprehensive economic partnership agreement, etc.会议要求,有关部门要按照党中央、国务院部署,压实责任,对照协定明确任务分工和时限,尽早完成协定生效实施的国内相关工作。The meeting requested that relevantdepartments should follow the arrangements of the Party Central Committee andthe State Council, consolidate their responsibilities, clarify the division oftasks and time limits in accordance with the agreement, and complete therelevant domestic work for the implementation of the agreement as soon aspossible.两个月涨近三倍后,理想汽车大额增发,中概造车新势力均一度暴跌After nearlythree-fold increase in two months, the ideal car issuance is large, and the newforces in China's car manufacturing have plummeted.理想汽车申请以最高36.8美元配售4700万股ADS,占已发行美国存托股票的5.6%,股价开盘跌11%后跌幅显著收窄,收跌逾0.3%,其他中概造车新势力也暴跌后反弹,小鹏汽车跌12%后转涨,收涨逾7%,蔚来跌15%后盘中转涨,收涨逾5%。此外,周三当日理想汽车公布交付数据显示,旗下理想ONE在11月交付4646辆,环比增长25.8%,再创单月交付量纪录。Ideal Motors applied for the placement of47 million ADS shares for a maximum of US$36.8, accounting for 5.6% of theissued American depositary stocks. The stock price dropped 11% after theopening and the decline was significantly narrowed, closing more than 0.3%.Other new Chinese car-making forces also plummeted After rebounding, XiaopengMotors fell 12% and then turned up and closed up more than 7%. After Weilai fell15%, it turned up and closed up over 5%. In addition, on Wednesday, IdealMotors released delivery data showing that its Ideal ONE delivered 4646vehicles in November, an increase of 25.8% from the previous month, setting anew monthly delivery record.小米暴跌之际美银美林“补刀”:下调评级及目标价Bank of AmericaMerrill Lynch "makes up" at the time of Xiaomi's plunge: downgradesand target price美银美林认为,小米增发和发行可转债后,EPS/ROE将被摊薄4.7%。小米2021年34倍的市盈率存在高估值压力,因此预期下调至27倍。Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes thatafter Xiaomi's additional issuance and issuance of convertible bonds, EPS/ROEwill be diluted by 4.7%. Xiaomi's 2021 P/E ratio of 34 times is under highvaluation pressure, so it is expected to be lowered to 27 times.美国会通过法案,禁止三年未满足审计监管要求的海外上市公司股票交易The United States will pass a bill to prohibit the stock tradingof overseas listed companies that have not met the audit and supervisionrequirements for three years美国众议院当地时间周三表决通过《外国公司问责法》(Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act)。该法案要求,外国发行人连续三年不能满足美国公众公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)对会计师事务所检查要求的,禁止其证券在美国交易。该议案已于今年5月在美国参议院获得通过。 受此影响,部分中概股盘后跳水。The US House of Representatives voted onWednesday local time to pass the "Holding Foreign Companies AccountableAct" (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act). The Act requires thatforeign issuers that fail to meet the requirements of the PCAOB for auditingfirms for three consecutive years are prohibited from trading in the UnitedStates. The bill was passed in the US Senate in May this year. Affected bythis, some Chinese concept stocks dived after the market.美国11月ADP就业人数增加30.7万人大幅低于预期U.S. ADP employmentincreased by 307,000 in November, significantly lower than expected美国ADP就业人数连续第二个月下滑。ADP研究院称,11月美国就业在维持正增长的同时,步伐继续放缓。The number of U.S. ADP employment declinedfor the second consecutive month. According to the ADP Institute, the pace ofemployment in the United States continued to slow down while maintaining positivegrowth in November.姆努钦终结救市工具遭听证议员“围攻” 鲍威尔暗示美联储不会撤除支持Mnuchin’s tools to end the lout were "siege" by hearingmembers. Powell hinted that the Fed would not withdraw support 鲍威尔暗示,美联储和决定停用部分联储抗疫贷款工具的美国财长姆努钦并无分歧,联储希望将贷款工具的保障功能再多保留一段时间。姆努钦辩称,他的决策完全合法,没有政治倾向。Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve andU.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who decided to discontinue some of the Fed'santi-epidemic loan tools, have no disagreement. The Fed hopes to retain theprotection function of loan tools for a longer period of time. Mnuchin arguedthat his decision was completely legal and not politically inclined.美国会民主党领袖支持基于9080亿美元跨党派方案进行刺激谈判Democratic leadersof the American Congress support stimulus negotiations based on a $908 billioncross-party package美国众议院议长佩洛西和参议院民主党领袖舒默联合发布声明,呼吁立即进行新刺激的谈判,以本周二参议院两党议员提出的9080亿美元方案为基础。The Speaker of the U.S. House ofRepresentatives Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Schumer jointly issued astatement calling for immediate negotiations on new stimulus, based on the $908billion plan proposed by bipartisan members of the Senate on Tuesday.姆努钦:特朗普将支持参院共和党领袖提出的刺激案Mnuchin: Trump willsupport the Senate Republican leader's stimulus case姆努钦称,特朗普将签署一项抗疫救助议案,它基于共和党人在传阅的框架。媒体称,虽然具体议案的文本还未草拟完成,但在同白宫官员和众议院共和党领袖麦卡锡讨论后,参议院共和党领袖麦康奈尔本周二已经在共和党议员的会议上传阅一份有针对性的救助方案概要。该框架提出,将3月抗疫救助法批准拨发却未用完的资金修改用途。它包括对小企业、餐饮业和剧院资助约3000亿美元,还有几十亿美元用于疫苗、学校和美国邮政,并未纳入对州和地方政府的资助,纳入了民主党人长期抵制的免责。Mnuchinsaid that Trump will sign an anti-epidemic rescue bill based on a frameworkcirculated by Republicans.The media said that although the text of the specificbill has not been drafted, after discussing with White House officials andHouse Republican leader McCarthy, Senate Republican leader McConnell hasuploaded a targeted copy at a meeting of Republicans on Tuesday. Summary of therescue plan. The framework proposes to modify the use of funds that wereapproved but not used up by the Anti-epidemic Relief Law in March. It includesfunding of approximately US$300 billion for small businesses, the cateringinstry, and theaters, as well as billions of US dollars for vaccines,schools, and the U.S. Postal Service. It does not include funding for state andlocal governments, and includes exemptions for long-term resistance byDemocrats .美联储褐皮书:美国经济活动温和扩张四个地区几乎未见增长Fed's Beige Book:U.S. economic activity expands modestly, four regions see little growth褐皮书称,10月末以来,美国经济活动温和扩张,大多数地区经济适度或温和(modest or moderate)增长。12个美联储辖区中,有四个地区报称,当地经济“鲜有增长或毫无增长”,另有五个地区指出,当地至少有部分行业的经济活动低于新冠危机前的水平。多个地区担心,在复苏以前,今年冬季当地就业水平会下降。According to the Beige Book, since the endof October, economic activity in the United States has expanded moderately, andthe economy in most regions has grown modest or moderate. Among the 12 Fedjurisdictions, four regions reported that the local economy had “little or nogrowth”, and five other regions pointed out that economic activity in at leastsome instries in the region was lower than before the new crown crisis. Manyregions worry that local employment levels will decline this winter beforerecovery.软银放弃“纳斯达克鲸”!据称年内了结九成期权Softbank gives up"Nasdaq Whale"! Allegedly settled 90% of options ring the year媒体称,因投资者强烈不满,软银将任由90%的期权合约在12月底以前到期终止。截至三季度,软银进行衍生品等科技股交易的机构累计亏损37亿美元。“纳斯达克鲸”几乎亏掉软银上半年所有衍生品回报。According to the media, e to stronginvestor dissatisfaction, SoftBank will allow 90% of its option contracts toexpire before the end of December. As of the third quarter, SoftBank'sinstitutions that trade in technology stocks such as derivatives hadaccumulated losses of US$3.7 billion. The "NASDAQ Whale" almost lostall of SoftBank's derivative returns in the first half of the year.巴菲特罕见“打新”的Snowflake上市后首份财报亏损超预期盘后跌9%| 财报见闻Buffett’s rare “new”Snowflake lost more than expected in its first financial report after goingpublic, and fell 9% after the market |Snowflake第三财季营收高于市场预期,但每股亏损额几乎是预期的四倍。Snowflake's third-quarter revenue washigher than market expectations, but the loss per share was almost four timesthe expected.给波音注入强心针美国航空复飞737 Max 为业内首家Give Boeing a boost,American Airlines goes back to fly 737 Max as the first in the instry美国航空计划本周试飞波音737 Max飞机。搭乘飞机的人员将包括美国航空的高层管理人员和记者。他们希望此举能提高人们对这款飞机的信心。此前,波音737 Max飞机发生两次坠机事故,导致346人丧生。目前,该机型已经停飞了20个月。今日,波音股价上涨3.6%。American Airlines plans to test the Boeing737 Max aircraft this week. Those flying on the plane will include seniorexecutives and reporters from American Airlines. They hope this will increasepeople's confidence in this aircraft. Earlier, there were two crashes on Boeing737 Max aircraft, which killed 346 people. Currently, the aircraft has beengrounded for 20 months. Today, Boeing's shares rose 3.6%.欧盟考虑设立不包括匈牙利和波兰的抗疫复苏基金,施压否决财政刺激的成员国The EU considers setting up an anti-epidemic recovery fund that excludesHungary and Poland, and pressures member states to veto fiscal stimulus媒体称,欧盟委员会的高官警告,欧盟在考虑,明年推出没有匈牙利和波兰参与的7500亿欧元欧盟抗疫复苏基金,充当“纽带”,直到匈牙利和波兰改变立场为止。在11月的投票中,波兰和匈牙利行使了否决权,导致欧盟1.8万亿欧元财政刺激预算和复苏计划未能通过。According to the media, senior officials ofthe European Commission warned that the EU is considering launching an EUanti-epidemic recovery fund of 750 billion euros next year without Hungary andPoland as a "link" until Hungary and Poland change their positions.In the November vote, Poland and Hungary exercised their veto powers, resultingin the failure of the EU’s 1.8 trillion euro fiscal stimulus budget andrecovery plan.媒体称OPEC+周四会议有望同意延长当前减产Media said OPEC+meeting on Thursday is expected to agree to extend current proction cuts能源业信息服务与数据分析机构Energy Intelligence的记者周三称,多名外交官和OPEC+代表称,本周四的OPEC+会议会达成积极的共识。能源咨询业人士预计,OPEC+会一致同意,将始于明年1月的缩减减产计划推迟3个月执行。A reporter from Energy Intelligence, aninformation service and data analysis agency for the energy instry, said onWednesday that multiple diplomats and OPEC+ representatives said thatThursday’s OPEC+ meeting will reach a positive consensus. The energy consultinginstry predicts that OPEC+ will unanimously agree to postpone theimplementation of the proction rection plan that began in January next yearby three months.东南亚最大互联网并购案呼之欲出!媒体称打车公司Grab与Gojek合并出现实质进展The largest InternetM&A case in Southeast Asia is about to emerge! Media reports substantialprogress in the merger of ride-hailing companies Grab and Gojek如果两家公司合并成功,将有望成为东南亚最强大的互联网公司之一。不过,合并能否成功不仅取决于双方的谈判,也会牵扯东南亚各国监管机构是否予以批准。If the two companies merge successfully,they will be expected to become one of the most powerful Internet companies inSoutheast Asia. However, the success of the merger depends not only on thenegotiations between the two parties, but also on whether the regulatoryagencies of Southeast Asian countries approve it.今日见闻历12月3日,星期四,宜专注Thursday, December 3, Yi Focus有人说,知识的岛屿越大,无知的海岸线就越长。把这种人性论应用到投资上,其结论必然是:每个投资者都有一个其知识和能力所及的能力圈。It is said that the larger the island of knowledge, the longer the coastline of ignorance. Applying this theory of human nature to investment, the conclusion must be: every investor has a circle of competence within his knowledge and ability.作者:张良信息咨询服务工作室Author: Zhang information consulting services studio链接:https://www.zzw868.cn/ https://www.zzw868.com/著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。The copyright belongs to the author. For commercial reprints, please contact the author for authorization. For non-commercial reprints, please indicate the source.风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。Risk Warning: The opinions mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended. Buy and sell accordingly at your own risk.来源:华尔街见闻Source: Wall Street

无欲

财经期刊FM-Radio|2020年12月05日

【今日热点新闻一览↓↓】银保监会课题组发布重磅报告影子银行首个官方定义来了!The China Banking and InsuranceRegulatory Commission's research team released a heavy report The firstofficial definition of shadow banking is here!本报告详细描述了影子银行的起源和发展演变,中国影子银行的判别标准、范围和规模,以及影子银行三年治理的背景、过程和成效等,并提出相应的监管建议。This report describes in detail the origin,development and evolution of shadow banking, the criteria, scope, and scale ofshadow banking in China, as well as the background, process, and effectivenessof shadow banking for three years, and puts forward corresponding regulatoryrecommendations.中国证监会谈美国批准《外国公司问责法案》:坚决反对将证券监管政治化的做法China Securities RegulatoryCommission talks about the approval of the "Foreign Company AccountabilityAct" in the United States: Resolutely oppose the practice of politicizingsecurities supervision美国对外国发行人提出的额外披露要求具有明显的歧视性。美国监管机构暂时不能检查为在美上市中国公司提供审计服务的中国会计师事务所,是跨境监管合作领域的问题,应当通过加强双边监管合作加以解决。The additional disclosure requirements ofthe United States against foreign issuers are obviously discriminatory. TheU.S. regulatory agencies are temporarily unable to inspect Chinese accountingfirms that provide audit services to Chinese companies listed in the U.S. Thisis a problem in the field of cross-border regulatory cooperation and should beresolved by strengthening bilateral regulatory cooperation.香港金管局:正与中国人民银行数字货币研究所,研究使用数字人民币进行跨境支付技术测试。Hong Kong MonetaryAuthority: It is working with the Digital Currency Research Institute of thePeople's Bank of China to study the use of digital RMB for cross-border paymenttechnology testing.香港金融管理局总裁余伟文撰文称,当前,金管局正与中国人民银行数字货币研究所研究使用数字人民币进行跨境支付的技术测试,并作相应的技术准备。Yu Weiwen, president of the Hong KongMonetary Authority, wrote an article that currently, the Monetary Authority isworking with the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank ofChina to study the use of digital renminbi for cross-border payment technologytesting and make corresponding technical preparations.折价10.2%?媒体称理想汽车增发价29美元,拟募资13.6亿美元10.2% discount? The media saidthat the ideal car’s additional issuance price was US$29, and it plans to raiseUS$1.36 billion彭博称,理想汽车把增发4700万股ADS的价格定在29美元,较周四收盘折价10.2%。该股自11月24日以来大幅回调,迄今累计跌超三成。周五,理想汽车跌超5%。According to Bloomberg, Ideal Auto set theprice of additional 47 million ADS shares at $29, a 10.2% discount toThursday's closing price. The stock has corrected sharply since November 24 andhas fallen by more than 30% so far. On Friday, Ideal Car fell more than 5%.大幅不及预期!美国11月非农就业人口新增24.5万人,预期47.5万人Much less than expected! USnon-agricultural employment population increased by 245,000 in November, and isexpected to be 475,000美国11月非农业就业人口新增24.5万人,大幅低于市场预期的47.5万人,前值63.8万。11月,美国失业率为6.7%,略好于市场预期的6.8%,和前值6.9%相比亦有所收窄。11月也是自4月美国失业率达到14.7%之后连续第七个月下降。The non-agricultural employment populationof the United States increased by 245,000 in November, which was significantlylower than market expectations of 475,000 and the previous value was 638,000.In November, the US unemployment rate was 6.7%, slightly better than marketexpectations of 6.8%, and also narrowed from the previous value of 6.9%.November was also the seventh consecutive month of decline since the USunemployment rate reached 14.7% in April.制造业降温趋势突显!美国10月工厂和耐用品订单环比涨幅均逊于前值The trend of manufacturingcooling is highlighted! The month-on-month increase in US factory and rablegoods orders was lower than the previous value10月份,美国工厂订单与耐用品订单都连续第六个月增长,也都弱于9月的环比涨势。周二公布的美国11月ISM制造业指数脱离两年高位,显示出随着新冠疫情在秋冬季复燃,美国制造业已经蒙上阴影。In October, both US factory orders andrable goods orders increased for the sixth consecutive month, which were alsoweaker than the month-on-month increase in September. The US November ISMmanufacturing index released on Tuesday broke from a two-year high, showingthat as the new crown epidemic resumes in autumn and winter, the USmanufacturing instry has been overshadowed.拜登:非农就业太差赶紧行动本月和下月应各来一次刺激案Biden: Non-agriculturalemployment is too poor, act quickly拜登说,新刺激案可能包括给家庭直接发1200美元。国会民主党和共和党领袖均希望,将刺激计划和避免本月政府关门的综合性开支协议绑在一起。这增加了年底达成协议的可能。Biden said the new stimulus case mayinclude a direct payment of $1,200 to the family. The leaders of both Democratsand Republicans in Congress hope to tie the stimulus plan to a comprehensivespending agreement that avoids this month's government shutdown. This increasesthe likelihood of reaching an agreement at the end of the year.大量疫苗上市在望:辉瑞疫苗接近今年5000万剂目标 Moderna预计一季度1亿剂A large number of vaccines are onthe horizon: Pfizer vaccine is close to the target of 50 million doses thisyear, Moderna expects 100 million doses in the first quarter辉瑞合作方BioNTech称,已完成今年的大部分生产目标。Moderna预计明年可产5亿剂。中国专家称,年内将有6亿支国产灭活疫苗获批上市。BioNTech, a Pfizer partner, said that mostof this year's proction goals have been completed. Moderna expects to proce500 million doses next year. According to Chinese experts, 600 milliondomestically-made inactivated vaccines will be approved for marketing withinthis year.波音考虑出售股权再度削减787产量 股价跌超2%Boeing considersselling equity to cut 787 proction again, stock price drops more than 2%波音公司首席财务官格雷格·史密斯周五表示,由于新冠病毒大流行引起国际旅行需求下降,波音公司将其787 Dreamliner的月产量目标从六架进一步下调至五架。此外,波音正在研究股票出售和其他减轻债务负担的方法,今年以来该公司的债务已飙升至610亿美元。Boeing Chief Financial Officer Greg Smithsaid on Friday that e to the decline in international travel demand caused bythe new crown virus pandemic, Boeing further lowered its monthly proctiontarget for the 787 Dreamliner from six to five. In addition, Boeing is studyingstock sales and other ways to rece the debt burden. Since the beginning ofthis year, the company's debt has soared to 61 billion US dollars.疫苗点燃复苏预期通胀交易持续升温Vaccines ignite recoveryexpectations, inflation trading continues to heat up强劲、快速的经济反弹,再加上美联储表示愿意让通货膨胀率持续维持在2%以上的目标,令投资者担心,未来通货膨胀会侵蚀本来就很低的债券收益率的实际价值。The strong and rapid economic rebound,coupled with the Fed’s stated willingness to keep the inflation rate above 2%,has made investors worry that future inflation will erode the real value of thealready low bond yields.英国脱欧谈判暂停英镑短线下挫Brexit talks suspended, poundslumps short-term英国和欧盟的退欧谈判代表在推特上发布联合声明称,双方在公平竞争、治理和渔业方面的重大分歧,未能满足协议的条件。在此基础上,双方同意暂停会谈,以便向其负责人介绍谈判的进展情况。欧盟主席冯德莱恩和英国总理约翰逊将在明天下午讨论英国脱欧的局势。周五,英镑兑美元短线下挫大约20点,最低触及1.3457。The Brexit negotiators of the UnitedKingdom and the European Union issued a joint statement on Twitter stating thatthe two sides have failed to meet the conditions of the agreement on majordifferences in fair competition, governance and fisheries. On this basis, thetwo parties agreed to suspend the talks in order to brief their leaders on theprogress of the negotiations. EU President Von der Lein and British PrimeMinister Johnson will discuss the situation of Brexit tomorrow afternoon. On Friday,the British pound fell about 20 points against the U.S. dollar short-term,reaching a minimum of 1.3457.欧洲“印钞机”更凶猛:欧央行下周扩大刺激“板上钉钉”European"money printing machines" are more fierce: the European Central Bankexpands stimulus next week经济学家预计,欧洲央行决策者12月10日召开的会议,将决定把1.35万亿欧元的紧急债券购买计划再增加5000亿欧元,并会将向实体经济提供信贷的特殊条款延长6个月。Economists predict that the European CentralBank’s decision makers on December 10 will decide to increase the 1.35 trillioneuro emergency bond purchase plan by an additional 500 billion euros and extendthe special terms for providing credit to the real economy for six months. .打消民众疑虑!英国首相可能要电视直播自己打疫苗了Dispel public doubts! The BritishPrime Minister may want to vaccinate himself on live TV虽然英国是第一个批准新冠疫苗的西方国家,但有调查显示,20%的英国人不太相信辉瑞疫苗的安全性,大多数英国人反对强制注射疫苗。市场认为,如果鲍里斯和其他英国政要直播接种疫苗,则有助于消除英国人民疑虑。Although the United Kingdom was the firstWestern country to approve the new crown vaccine, surveys show that 20% ofBritish people do not believe in the safety of Pfizer vaccine, and most Britishpeople oppose mandatory injections. The market believes that if Boris and otherBritish dignitaries live vaccinated, it will help eliminate the doubts of theBritish people.今日见闻历12月5日,星期六,宜乐观Saturday, December 5th, should be optimistic河上没有桥还可以等待结冰,走过漫长的黑夜便是黎明。There is no bridge on the river and you can wait for it to freeze. After the long night is dawn.作者:张良信息咨询服务工作室Author: Zhang information consulting services studio链接:https://www.zzw868.cn/ https://www.zzw868.com/著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。The copyright belongs to the author. For commercial reprints, please contact the author for authorization. For non-commercial reprints, please indicate the source.风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。Risk Warning: The opinions mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended. Buy and sell accordingly at your own risk.来源:华尔街见闻Source: Wall Street

溜冰场

2018全球高校经济学研究力排名:中国高校在国际权威期刊论文发表快速增长,仍缺“芯”

改革开放40年,中国经济正从高速增长阶段迈入高质量发展阶段,中国的经济学在这一转变过程中肩负重任。随着“双一流”建设战略方针的贯彻实施,如何构建一个具有全球视野、科学有效的经济学研究评价体系,越来越受到来自于社会各界的期待。记者注意到,在此背景下,上海财经大学高等研究院从2017年开始每年定期推出全球高校经济学研究力排名报告,致力于客观全面地呈现世界范围内高校经济学科的研究力水平以及国内相关科研机构的世界位置。7月8日,上海财经大学高等研究院发布一项重要成果,即《2018全球高校经济学研究力排名报告》。《每日经济新闻》注意到,上海财经大学高等研究院旨在通过报告,给出一个更加科学合理、较少争议的国际经济学科评价体系。报告力求实现前瞻性、科学性、严谨性、时代性、现实性、思想性的有机融合。国内名高校经济学科国际化据上海财经大学经济学院、高等研究院院长田国强教授介绍,当前中国几乎所有知名高校都在进行经济学科的国际化,一个重要的标志就是纷纷去海外引进高质量人才。如何构建一个具有全球视野、科学有效的经济学研究和人才客观评价体系,越来越受到中国高校的重视和社会各界的期待。因此,该排名的推出,为国内高校打造世界一流经济学科提供历史方位的同时,也便于我国科研主管部门更为科学地考核、评估科研机构,从而为推进和实施世界一流经济学科建设战略提供客观依据,并为学生报考大学及科研机构间人员流动提供有效的参照,促进研究教育资源的有效配置。经济学研究评价体现在多个方面,比如期刊学术论文发表、课题、学术书籍出版、政策报告等。但论文发表数量,特别是在公认的经济学国际顶尖和一流期刊上发表论文的数量,是评定一个学科最基础、最关键的量化指标,它代表了一个大学、学科的知识贡献水平,是国际学术共同体的重要评议依据,也是具有高引用率和拥有明星级教授的前提条件。当前全球经济学研究机构排名均是基于论文发表篇数。但存在的弊端是,这些排名所纳入的经济学期刊参差不齐,并未进行权重区分,对独立作者和多位作者合作的情况也未加区分,使之排名有失偏颇。《全球高校经济学研究力排名报告》更为立体、科学,具体表现在:在排名依据上,以国际上通常采用的论文发表篇数为基础;在期刊选择上,选取19本国际经济学界公认的综合顶级和分支领域顶级经济学期刊,基于这样高水平经济学期刊而得出来的排名更能客观反映是否属于世界一流经济学科;在期刊权重上,对5本综合顶尖期刊和14本分支顶尖期刊做了不同权重处理;在作者贡献上,根据作者人数和署名单位数对单位得分进行了折算。记者注意到,排行榜采取了期刊+作者综合权重、期刊权重、作者权重和无任何权重四种方法分别进行了排名,以确保排名的科学性。田国强教授介绍,得到的排名结果相当稳健,也应对了该排名的科学性。国际权重期刊论文发表快速增长从榜单动态变化看,整体上大陆高校在近五年来综合排名呈上升趋势。上海财经大学在以上四种方法下都居于全球前60名,在国内处于顶尖水平,凸显了上海财大理论经济学跻身上海市高峰Ⅱ类学科建设计划而取得的阶段性成果。同时,近三年排名情况显示,上海财经大学在以上四种方法下始终位居大陆高校第一,北京大学、清华大学分别位居第二和第三,首都经济贸易大学、中国人民大学、复旦大学等大陆高校排名也稳中有升。究其原因,随着国内经济学科国际化发展的不断推进以及国内高校海归经济学博士人才市场的流动性加大,越来越多的大陆高校在国际重要权威经济学期刊的论文发表实现快速增长,从而在2017年的全球排名中得以突显出来。排行榜基于综合顶尖类(top 5)期刊论文发表情况进行了单独排名。田国强教授强调这个单独排名的地位就像芯片是半导体的心脏一样,结果显示中国大陆高校仍然缺“芯”,虽然近年来在国际顶尖期刊的论文发表进步显著,但近五年发文数的中国第一(6篇)与世界第一(173篇)仍然存在着巨大差距。田国强教授最后表示,一般情况下,评价一个学科的研究水平和实力,通常是拿论文发表数量与质量来考察的,而这只是一个维度,还有其他综合性的维度,比如课题、学术书籍出版、政策报告、同行评价、全球雇主评价等多项因素。我们希望达到的是,根据国际上通常采用发文篇数作为依据的前提下,尽可能做到科学合理、减少争议。全球高校经济学研究力排行榜将每年发布一次,持续跟踪国内高校经济学学科的国际研究力排名。

上有大役

《世界财经》杂志河南省分社成立暨战略合伙伴签约仪式新闻发布会

春种一粒粟,秋收万颗子。正值收获季节,8月29日,《世界财经》杂志河南省分社成立及战略合作伙伴签约新闻发布会在驻马店爱普益医学检验中心隆重举行。驻马店市政协常委、天中晚报副刊部王慧玲主任,驻马店市政协常委、霸王爵士服饰创始人刘振江,驻马店市政协委员、天中书画研究院院长闫云,驻马店市政协委员、世界财经杂志河南分社社长高东卫,副社长张红艳,新华在线网驻马店站站长张宁,世界财经杂志驻马店负责人周勇强等领导和国家、省、市级媒体单位的代表近50人莅临新闻发布会,会议由世界财经杂志河南省分社副社长张红艳主持。《世界财经》杂志河南分社社长高东卫首先发表热情洋溢的贺辞,感谢各级媒体单位与合作企业的的鼎力支持,高东卫向与会人员介绍:《世界财经》杂志创刊于2015年4月,由中国国际出版传媒有限公司、世界财经出版社编辑出版,国际标准刊号sSN2411-2453,国内发行号270Y0049。《世界财经》杂志是经国家新闻出版广电总局备案批准、由中国图书进出口集团公司国内外公开发行的经济类行业期刊。《世界财经》杂志是一本覆盖国内外的高端经济类杂志,杂志为双月刊,主要以介绍国内外经济发展为使命。驻马店市政协常委、天中晚报副刊部主任王慧玲代表到场的各媒体单位对《世界财经》杂志河南省分社成立暨战略合作伙伴签约仪式新闻发布会隆重举行表示真诚祝贺。王慧玲表示,《世界财经》杂志是高起点的综合财经杂志,该杂志河南分社的成立必将为驻马店众多企业拓宽视野,提升境界。为驻马店市经济腾飞,实现高质量跨越式发展贡献媒体力量 ,是一件值得庆贺的喜事。签约仪式上,在众多媒体记者的见证下,霸王爵士服饰有限公司、爱普益医学检验中心的代表分别与《世界财经》杂志河南分社负责人签约成为战略合作伙伴。签约仪式结束后,全体与会人员在驻马店市爱普益医学检验实验室负责人的引导下,参观了位于驻马店市兴业大道驻马店电子商务产业园内先进的医学检验实验室,据悉,该项目总投资8000万元,总面积3000m;是一家与医院合作共建、医疗共享为一体的第三方医学实验室。室内规划、设计、装修以s015189执行。实验室主要包括主任室、医务人员办公室、更衣室、样本接收、信息处理、报告单打印、临床体液、血液、临床微生物学、临床化学检验、生化免疫、血清学、分子遗传学、微量元素、分子生物、资料室等,公司开展生化类、血栓类、免疫类、分子生物学类等1000多个检测项目,以一流的检验设备和专业技术水平,让每一位受检者享受最优质的服务,为临床诊断、治疗、康复、预防等方面提供及时、准确、高效的检验信息和依据。我们本着热情周到、客户至上的服务宗旨以及精准检测、专业务实的工作态度回馈社会。作者【王红军】

履行遂进

西安财经大学期刊建设成效显著《论坛》迈入国内一流

近年来,西安财经大学高度重视期刊建设,以创建“一流期刊”为目标,开拓创新,锐意进取,挖掘期刊特色,助推核心期刊建设成效显著。该校主办的《统计与信息论坛》和《西安财经大学学报》入选多家核心期刊评价体系来源期刊;多次获得全国高校文科学报研究会和陕西省高校学报研究会的嘉奖;所刊发论文的各项被引指标逐年攀升,四大权威转载期刊转摘率大幅提升。在陕西省高校8家CSSCI来源期刊、3家CSSCI扩展版来源期刊中,西安财大“两刊”各占一席,综合实力稳居陕西省高校社科期刊前10位。《统计与信息论坛》主要指标居全国同类期刊第二位,国际影响力排名第44位。学术影响力大幅提升根据清华大学中国科学文献计量评价研究中心与中国知网联合发布的2019年《中国学术期刊影响因子年报(人文社会科学)》显示,西安财经大学“两刊”影响因子大幅提升。《统计与信息论坛》影响因子从2018年的1.430提升至2019年的1.772,较上年提高了24%,人文社科影响因子学科排名位居全国统计类期刊第2;国际影响力显著提升,影响力排名由2018年的58名提升至2019年的44名。《西安财经大学学报》影响因子在上年实现追赶超越目标突破“1”的基础上,从2018年的1.040提升至2019年的1.527,较上年提高了46.83%,学科排名在全国96家经济期刊中排第44位。“两刊”无论在影响力还是在学科排名上都有大幅提升。权威转载期刊摘转篇数和种类实现新突破2019年,西安财经大学“两刊”发文被《新华文摘》《中国社会科学文摘》《高等学校文科学术文摘》以及人大复印报刊资料等四大权威转载期刊摘转篇数不断提高。截至目前,《统计与信息论坛》所刊发文章中被《新华文摘》摘转2篇、被《高等学校文科学术文摘》全文转载2篇、被人大复印报刊资料全文转载9篇,共计13篇,转载率较上年提高44%。《西安财经大学学报》所刊发文章中被《新华文摘》摘转1篇、被《中国社会科学文摘》摘转2篇、被《高等学校文科学术文摘》摘转3篇、被人大复印报刊资料全文转载12篇,共计18篇,转载率较上年提高50%。西安财经大学“两刊”在权威转载期刊摘转篇数和种类上均实现了较大突破。全国高校期刊评优成果丰硕 位居陕西高校前列11月26日,在“‘双一流’建设背景下高校学术期刊的责任与使命学术研讨会暨全国高校文科学报研究会第八届理事会第五次会议”上,公布了第六届全国高校社科期刊评优活动结果,西安财经大学《统计与信息论坛》荣获“全国高校社科名刊”称号,《西安财经大学学报》荣获“全国高校社科精品期刊”称号。第六届全国高校社科期刊评优活动由全国高校文科学报研究会组织、教育部社科司批准,对全国高校的社科期刊进行评选,影响较大、覆盖范围较广、权威性较高,本次共评选出全国高校社科名刊103种、精品期刊160种、优秀期刊201种。“全国高校社科名刊”称号是评优活动中级别最高的奖项,“全国高校社科精品期刊”仅次其后,竞争都非常激烈。西安财大“两刊”能够在全国1150余种高校文科学报中脱颖而出,标志着期刊的影响力和学术水平已达到行业较高水平。《西安财经大学学报》“秦文化与经济”栏目被评为“全国高校社科期刊特色栏目”;坚守编辑岗位30年的资深编辑张治国编审被授予陕西和全国“玉笔奖”荣誉称号;多名编辑分别被评为全国高校社科期刊优秀主编、优秀编辑。西安财大“两刊”获奖数量和等级均较上一届有较大突破,《统计与信息论坛》由上一届的“精品期刊”提升至“名刊”,《西安财经大学学报》由上一届的“优秀期刊”提升至“精品期刊”。在此前公布的陕西省高校社科期刊评优结果中,西安财大“两刊”同样喜获多项荣誉,《论坛》的“名刊”、《学报》的“精品期刊”称号是多年维持的荣誉,连续多年获此殊荣表明西安财大“两刊”学术水平在陕西省高校长期保持着领先性和稳定性。这次获奖级别之高、数量之多位居陕西高校前列。获奖信息分别在今日头条、人民日报、陕西日报等新媒体平台报道。以特色促发展成效显著长期以来,西安财经大学“两刊”依托学科优势和地域优势,不断加强特色栏目建设,以特色建设为突破口,实现多学科交叉融合,推动期刊整体上台阶,效果显著,成果丰硕。《统计与信息论坛》“统计理论与方法”栏目和《西安财经大学学报》“秦文化与经济”栏目多次荣获“全国高校社科期刊特色栏目”“陕西省高校社科期刊特色栏目”。11月22日,在中国社会科学评价研究院主办的“第六届全国人文社会科学评价高峰论坛”上公开发布了《中国人文社会科学期刊特色化发展案例选编(2019年)》,《西安财经大学学报》“秦文化与经济”特色栏目入选。陕西共入选2种期刊。这次入选《案例选编》标志着《西安财经大学学报》办刊特色和取得的成绩得到了全国期刊界、学术界及评价机构的充分肯定。积极开展学术会议交流 深化学术创新合作西安财经大学长期注重开放办刊,采取“走出去、请进来”策略,加强与期刊界、学术界的交流与合作。2019年,更进一步加大开放办刊力度,成功主办“新时代我国高校社科期刊发展研讨会暨《西安财经大学学报》30年刊庆座谈会”和“全国高校文科学报研究会财经高校联络中心2019年学术年会”;联合承办“首都经济学家论坛第十六次学术讨论会”“2019年丝路经济国际论坛”和“第十九届中国经济学年会——丝路经济产业发展专题论坛”等各类学术会议,进一步提升了西安财经大学“两刊”对外学术创新合作的水平,扩大了学校的美誉度和影响力!(通讯员 孙湉 耿戈)